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Population projections, 2017 (base) to 2032 for all states and territories at Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) by sex and age

September 2019
Department of Health and Aged Care

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as consultant to the Australian Government Department of Health. The projections are not official ABS data and the assumptions have been set by the Department of Health.

The base Estimated Resident Population (ERP) used is the 30 June 2017 ERP as published in Australian Demographic Statistics, December 2017 (ABS cat. no. 3101.0) and released on 20 June 2017. ERP age/sex cells have been confidentialised through perturbation, though this does not affect SA2 totals. SA2s with total ERP under 1,000 have generally been held constant as reliable projections are not possible for the very small age/sex cells involved.

Later years (2018 – 2032) are projected using a combination of assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) to 2066 (ABS cat. no. 3222.0) and historical patterns observed in each state/territory.

You will need to read and accept the following conditions of use in order to download and use these population projections.

Conditions of use

The following Conditions of Use apply in respect of the use of the Population Projections for SA2s. By accessing the Population Projections for SA2s (the Material), you acknowledge, understand and accept these Conditions of Use: 

1. The Commonwealth of Australia (Commonwealth) retains at all times ownership of the intellectual property (including copyright) in the Material as well as the associated Explanatory Notes described in paragraph 4, and included later.

2. The Material was prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the purpose of the Commonwealth (through the Department of Health) and other governments to plan and evaluate aged care. The projections reflect the assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration trends. While the assumptions are formulated on the basis of an objective assessment of demographic trends over the past decade and their likely future dynamics, there can be no certainty that they will be realised.

3. Licence: If you agree to these Conditions of Use by clicking on the hyperlink at paragraph 10, indicating that you understand and accept these Conditions of Use, the Commonwealth grants you a non-exclusive, non-transferable, fee-free right to use, reproduce, distribute and adapt the Material on and from the date you first access the Material, but no right to sub-licence the Material.

4. That you will not charge any person for the Material.

5. Disclaimer: The Commonwealth does not warrant the suitability, accuracy or currency of the Material and Explanatory Notes for any purpose. Revised or updated Material or Explanatory Notes may or may not be provided in future.

6. No liability: No liability will be accepted by the Commonwealth for any damages or other claims for compensation arising from your decisions or actions based on any version of the Material or the Explanatory Notes.

7. Indemnity: You agree to indemnify and hold harmless and to release the Commonwealth including its officers, employees and agents, from and against all liability, losses, claims, proceedings, damages, costs and expenses directly or indirectly relating to or arising from exercising the Licence given at paragraph 3 above including but not limited to use, reproduction, adaptation, publication or distribution of the Material or Explanatory Notes or the use of or reliance on the contents of the Material or Explanatory Notes by any person.

8. Due acknowledgment: You will ensure that due acknowledgment is made to the effect that the Material and Explanatory Notes remain at all times the property of the Commonwealth and shall include with any printed, reproduced or otherwise published Material or Explanatory Notes a statement giving the Commonwealth all the rights and benefits in these Conditions of Use. The projections are to be referred to as “Customised projections prepared for the Australian Government Department of Health by the Australian Bureau of Statistics".

9. You have read, understood and accept the Explanatory Notes before accessing or using the Material.

Yes, I wish to proceed having understood and accepted the Conditions of Use